With the so far flawless Spring for Chris Carpenter and the continued good health of the other 4 starters the Cardinal's rotation appears on track to be one of the national leagues best. With a rotation of Carpenter, Wainwright, Lohse, Wellemeyer and Pineiro the Cardinals have a realistic hope of having as good a rotation as the division favorite Cubs. There are of course many question marks, the main one of which is whether Carpenter can stay healthy. Other concerns are whether Lohse and Wellemeyer can follow up career years with seasons nearly as good and whether Pineiro can put together a decent season.
The Cubs however do have many of the same concerns. Zambrano's extremely heavy work load appears to be wearing him down. His era the last 2 seasons of 3.91 and 3.95 are not the stuff of a staff ace and he has faded down the stretch. Like Lohse, Dempster is coming off a career season and it is yet to be seen if he can follow it up with another good year. Harden is the poster boy for fragile starting pitchers and will not be counted on for more than 25 starts. Marshall has some potential but is not a proven major league starter yet.
The biggest threat to the Cubs is the Cardinals rotations coming together and having a strong year. Considering the Cardinals had the 6th best era in the N.L. last year despite Carpenter missing the whole year and Wainwright missing about half it is a real possibility they could have one of the best rotations in baseball in 2009.