While the Cubs are the clear favorite to win the N.L. Central it is not a done deal. Their huge payroll alone makes them the favorites. But there are a lot of reasons the Cubs may not be able to repeat their 97 wins of last season.

While the Cubs may be the favorite to win the N.L. Central it is not a given. Their huge payroll alone makes them the favorite. But they are not guaranteed to repeat their 97 win season and repeat as Central Champions. There are several possible reasons that this may not be the dream season that many Cub's fans think it will be.

1. The Cubs let the heart and soul of their team go. For years the Cub's management has focused on how good a player is on paper and has given little consideration to the little things a player brings to the team. They have consistently gotten rid of all of their standup players for some reason. This year they shed their 2 team leaders in Wood and Derosa.

2. The Cubs have been very injury free for the last 2 seasons. While there is no rule that their luck can not continue it is hard to believe that it can continue this well. Last season while the Cubs had almost no injuries the Brewers were hurt by some key injuries and the Cardinals were devastated by them. Three seasons ago the Cubs had a lot of injuries and finished with 66 wins.

3. Their starting pitching may not be as great as it looks. While Zambrano can look dominate he has not really lived up to his role as the staff ace. His era the last 2 seasons has been 3.95 and 3.91. Good by today's standards but hardly great. The Cubs have worked him mercilessly over the years. He has held up well so far, but he has lead the league in pitches thrown more than once and is showing a few signs of wearing down. Dempster had a very good season last year. While he certainly can do it again, it would be expecting a lot from a pitcher who sent to the bullpen for years because he was not doing well as a starter. Harden can dominate but it is almost a given he will go down with an injury. The Cubs would be thrilled if he starts 20 games. Lilly has been fairly good and should continue to be so. The 5th starter is up in the air. Samardzija certainly has good stuff and potential but he has never started a major league game. Marshall is a decent starter who will have to step in and pitch at some point this season.

4. They have no proven closer. While Marmol has been a great setup man he has wilted under the pressure of closing. He is only 8 for 11 in save opportunities. Kevin Gregg has closer experience but was not very good. 29 for 38 in save opportunities. The move of Marmol out of the setup role and with the possibility of Samardzija moving to the rotation makes the Cubs bullpen short on good late inning relievers.

5. Two straight season of being blown away in the playoffs by so so competition has got to weigh on the Cub's minds. Piniella seems to be having a hard time moving on and so will some of his players.

6. They are still the Cubs.


So take heart Brewer and Cardinal's fans. The Cubs should be good, but they will not be unbeatable.